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Lesson 29

Venture capital, angels & investor economicsModule 06 · Funding & investor logic

IGNITE EXTENDED / LESSON 29

Venture capital, angels & investor economics

Which investors fit the business, and what drives their decisions?

An investor-fit brief with a fund-economics sketch.

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29 / OpeningVenture capital, angels & investor economics

The decision and the learning goals

  • Explain why fund economics shape investment preferences
  • Compare investor types by incentives and capabilities
  • Assess investor fit beyond the size of a check
90-minute workshopOpening 5 minConcepts and original examples 35 minPractice 25 minDebrief 15 minReview 10 min
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29 / Module caseVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Klarna: three prices for one company, 2021–2025

In June 2021 Klarna raised $639 million in a round led by SoftBank at a $45.6 billion valuation. Thirteen months later, in July 2022, it raised $800 million at $6.7 billion, a cut of about 85%. Existing investors Sequoia, Bestseller, Silver Lake and Commonwealth Bank of Australia took part, joined by Mubadala and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. Klarna attributed the reset to the fall in public fintech valuations (peers down 80–90% from their peaks), rising rates and inflation, and had cut about 10% of its workforce in May 2022. On 10 September 2025 Klarna listed on the NYSE at $40 per share, a valuation of roughly $15 billion; the stock opened at $52 and closed its first day at $45.82. Sequoia held about 21% at the listing. The same company was therefore priced by three different marginal investors at three different moments, and an investor's outcome depended far more on its entry price, its share of later rounds and its fund's time horizon than on whether Klarna itself succeeded.

Sources: FinTech Futures: Klarna lands $800m funding as valuation cut to $6.7bn from $45.6bn last year · Fortune: Klarna's NYSE debut, the biggest IPO of 2025 · MarketBeat: Klarna prices IPO at $40, valuing the company at $15 billion

At the roughly $15B listing value, compare the outcome for an investor who entered at $45.6B in 2021, one who entered at $6.7B in 2022, and a long-time holder such as Sequoia (about 21% at listing). What multiple did each earn before any later dilution, and what does that tell you about how fund economics, entry price and holding period shape which investors a founder should take money from?

Module 06 case3 / 34
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

VC economics connect limited partners to company selection

A venture fund raises capital from limited partners and invests through a management organization. The fund’s agreements and time horizon shape its incentives. The source distinguishes the return received by limited partners from the gross outcome of the underlying investments.

A company must be attractive in the context of the fund’s portfolio. An investment can become a successful business while remaining too small to materially affect a large fund. This helps explain why an investor can reject an economically sensible venture without claiming that the venture has no value.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

A target multiple reflects time and outcome uncertainty

A return multiple describes proceeds relative to invested capital. It does not by itself state how long the investment took. Required multiples in early venture examples can incorporate a long holding period and the fact that many investments produce poor outcomes.

The finance slides distinguish an LP required return from a VC’s target gross multiple and a company’s exit valuation. Keep these quantities separate when solving a financing problem. A target multiple is an input to a negotiation model, not proof of the company’s fair value.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

The venture-capital structure

The venture-capital structureLimited partnersProvide capitalFund / GPsSelect and manageinvestmentsCompaniesBuild businessesReturns flow back under the relevant agreements

A simplified capital and incentive structure; specific fund agreements vary.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

A fund’s business model shapes its preferences

  • Fund size, duration and return objectives matter.
  • A small number of large outcomes can drive portfolio results.
  • An attractive business can be too small or unsuitable for a particular fund.
  • Check investor fit rather than treating capital as interchangeable.
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Capital sources are not identical

SourceQuestions to ask
Founders / operating cashHow much risk and cash can the business carry?
AngelsWhose money, expertise, capacity and objectives?
Accelerators / seed fundsWhat services, terms, network and follow-on record?
VC fundsWhat mandate, return logic, stage and governance involvement?
DebtWhat repayment, security and cash-flow requirements?
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Portfolio return arithmetic

TOTAL PROCEEDS ÷ TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED
Illustrative portfolio
Ten investments of $1 million each.
Outcomes
Nine return $0; one returns $30 million.
Gross multiple
30 ÷ 10 = 3.0× before fees, expenses, carry and timing.

This arithmetic explains why outcome size matters; it is not a forecast or a typical-result claim.

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29 / Deep diveVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Fund fit: what Relay means to three different funds

The same company at the same exit is a fund-maker for one investor and a rounding error for another.

Gross proceeds a fund needs for LPs to receive 3x net with 20% carry, ignoring fees: fund size + (2 x fund size) / 0.8 = 3.5 x fund size.

Relay's stakes are carried through the seed (SAFE holders keep 73.5% of their stake: 12.5% becomes 9.19%), the Series A (x0.80) and a hypothetical 20% Series B (x0.80). Pro-rata proceeds ignore liquidation preferences, which lesson 32 adds.

Investor (illustrative)Fund sizeCheckStake at exitProceeds at $600M exitShare of gross the fund needsExit needed to return the fund
Pre-seed fund (SAFE lead)$40M$0.75M2.94%$17.6M (23.5x)12.6% of $140M$1.36B
Series A lead$300M$12M16.0%$96M (8.0x)9.1% of $1,050M$1.88B
Multistage fund (SAFE)$1B$0.5M1.96%$11.8M (23.5x)0.34% of $3,500M$51B

Both SAFE checks earn the same 23.5x multiple; only the fund size differs. The multiple tells you the investment was good; the share of the fund tells you whether the investor will care.

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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

The funding ladder and where companies drop out

The funding ladder and where companies drop out; Strebulaev - Funding Slides PDF page 10
Original page · S37 · PDF page 1011 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Average years to exit, M&A vs IPO, 1985–2019

Average years to exit, M&A vs IPO, 1985–2019; Strebulaev - Funding Slides PDF page 12
Original page · S37 · PDF page 1212 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

VC ownership in the first institutional round

VC ownership in the first institutional round; Strebulaev - Funding Slides PDF page 16
Original page · S37 · PDF page 1613 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Angels vs VCs: control, governance and profit motive

Angels vs VCs: control, governance and profit motive; Strebulaev - Funding Slides PDF page 22
Original page · S37 · PDF page 2214 / 34
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Angel and VC processes create different practical constraints

An angel can invest their own capital, while a VC typically acts within a fund and an institutional process. Angel groups, seed funds and accelerators add further variation. Decision timing, contracting, follow-on capacity and governance can differ.

Investor selection should examine the actual person or organization. Ask about available capital, relevant experience, mentoring expectations and reputation with founders. A promised introduction has a different value from committed financing, and an investor’s capacity to support later rounds may matter under a downside scenario.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Screening and diligence concentrate attention on uncertainty

The funding material describes a funnel from many opportunities to a small number of investments. The diligence process seeks evidence about the management team, model, market, financing and exit. Different investors weight these factors differently.

A useful investment memo separates what is known, what the investor thinks and what must be true for the deal to work. The diligence plan should target uncertainties capable of changing the decision. Collecting documents without a decision question can consume time while leaving the central assumption untested.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Angel and VC capacity

Investor categories describe typical structures, not a guarantee of what a particular investor can contribute. Inspect the actual capital, incentives and decision process.

Angel

May invest personal capital and have varied financial and non-financial goals.

VC fund

Invests under a fund structure and mandate, with obligations to capital providers. Capacity and decision processes vary.

Worked application

Illustrative application: an angel may commit personal funds and offer specialized customer access, while a fund may have reserves and a formal investment process. Neither label guarantees follow-on money, available time or aligned expectations. Ask about the specific commitment and the circumstances under which it can change.

Investor fit includes stage, decision speed, follow-on capacity, objectives and the relationship the company will need during setbacks.

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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Investor fit goes beyond check size

DimensionEvidence
Stage and mandateRecent relevant investments and stated scope.
Expertise and availabilityExperience, references and actual bandwidth.
CapacityAbility and willingness to participate now and later.
Governance and preferencesHow the investor handles difficult decisions.
ReputationPerspectives from founders and other counterparties.
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

The investor is evaluating a whole proposition

  • Team and capabilities.
  • Business model, product and market.
  • Financial needs, valuation and terms.
  • Risks, conflicts and the investor’s ability to help.
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29 / TheoryVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Know, think and need to believe

  • Know: facts with credible support.
  • Think: interpretations that fit the evidence.
  • Need to believe: uncertain conditions required for the investment to work.
  • Due diligence should target the uncertainties that matter most.
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Angel outcomes by investor experience

Angel outcomes by investor experience; Strebulaev - Funding Slides PDF page 31
Original page · S37 · PDF page 3121 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

From the LPs' 2.5x net to the VC's 3.1x gross target

From the LPs' 2.5x net to the VC's 3.1x gross target; Beyer - Finance Slides (all 3 sessions) PDF page 9
Original page · S31 · PDF page 922 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Distribution of net multiples across liquidated VC funds

Distribution of net multiples across liquidated VC funds; Beyer - Finance Slides (all 3 sessions) PDF page 10
Original page · S31 · PDF page 1023 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

The VC power law: 6% of deals produce 60% of returns

The VC power law: 6% of deals produce 60% of returns; Beyer - Finance Slides (all 3 sessions) PDF page 11
Original page · S31 · PDF page 1124 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Why each deal must be able to return 40x

Why each deal must be able to return 40x; Beyer - Finance Slides (all 3 sessions) PDF page 13
Original page · S31 · PDF page 1325 / 34
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29 / Source pageVenture capital, angels & investor economics

From target multiple to required exit size

From target multiple to required exit size; Beyer - Finance Slides (all 3 sessions) PDF page 14
Original page · S31 · PDF page 1426 / 34
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29 / ApplicationVenture capital, angels & investor economics

A sound small business and an unsuitable fund

A fictional company could become a stable profitable service with limited outside capital. A large venture fund needs outcomes large enough to affect its portfolio. A funding rejection can reflect fit rather than a complete judgment about the business.

What capital source matches the company’s objectives and economics?

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29 / Current practiceVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Current practice: venture capital in 2025–2026

Capital is concentrated and fundraising is thin

PitchBook counted $512B of global VC deal value in 2025, with AI companies taking more than half. Global VC fundraising fell to $118.6B, a ten-year low, and in the US only 537 new funds closed versus 1,777 in 2022. Fewer active funds and more dollars per AI deal make it harder for a non-AI workflow product like Relay v1 to get attention.

LPs are waiting for cash back

By the end of Q3 2025, only 25% of 2021-vintage funds on Carta had returned any capital, and a top-decile 2021 fund had returned about 12% of paid-in capital. GPs under pressure on distributions favor companies with credible exit paths and may sell positions in secondaries, which affects how patient a given investor can be.

Exits revived in 2025

Global exit value reached $549.2B in 2025, up more than $200B from 2024, and US exit counts rose about 28%. Large listings such as Klarna's in September 2025 showed the IPO path was open to scaled companies, but listings were about half of exit value and only about 10% of completed exits; most exits are still acquisitions.

Sources: SiliconANGLE: PitchBook: AI dominates global venture capital as 2025 deal value nears record · Carta: Should investors be concerned about 2021 venture funds? · NVCA: Q4 2025 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor · PitchBook: Q4 2025 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor

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29 / PracticeVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Choose an investor profile

Fictional A: a local profitable service needs modest working capital and values steady owner income. Fictional B: a scalable but risky technology requires years of investment before cash generation.

Your task

Compare funding sources for each, state the constraints and list three investor-fit questions. Do not assume equity is always available or appropriate.

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29 / DebriefVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Worked answer and reasoning

  • A may fit owner funding, operating cash or appropriate credit better than a large venture mandate, subject to actual repayment capacity and terms.
  • B may need risk capital, but the investor’s stage, technical expertise, capacity and horizon still matter.
  • Evaluate the objectives and constraints on both sides rather than maximizing the headline check.
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29 / Venture stepVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Venture step: Choose Relay's pre-seed investors

Relay · venture step 29

Month 1. Maya and Daniel will raise $1.5M on a post-money SAFE with a $12M cap, selling 12.5%. They plan a seed at month 16 and a Series A at month 30. Three sources are interested (all illustrative): a $40M pre-seed fund offering a $750k lead; eight angels, including two PT group owners and a former EHR executive, at $25k–$150k each; and a $1B multistage fund offering $500k with no board seat. Plan on the seed at $16M pre-money (20% to the investor, unallocated pool topped up to 10%), then 20% at the Series A, 20% at a later Series B, and a $600M exit.

Your task

Write an investor-fit brief: the recommended syndicate with dollar amounts; a one-line sketch of each investor's economics at a $600M exit; three diligence questions per investor; and the evidence that would change the recommendation.

Relay · illustrative venture31 / 34
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29 / Venture stepVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Venture step: worked reasoning

  • Pre-seed fund: $750k / $12M = 6.25% at conversion. That is 785,714 shares, which become 4.59% after the seed (785,714 / 17,102,041), 3.68% after the A and 2.94% after a B, so about $17.6M at a $600M exit, or 23.5x. To return 3x net with 20% carry (fees ignored), a $40M fund needs $40M + $80M / 0.8 = $140M gross. Relay alone would cover 12.6% of that, so the fund has reason to stay engaged and to reserve for pro-rata.
  • Multistage fund: $500k becomes 1.96% at exit, worth $11.8M. That is 0.34% of the roughly $3.5B gross a $1B fund needs for 3x net. The check means little to that fund, so its real interest is an early look at the seed. If it declines to lead at month 16, other investors will read that as negative inside information (signaling risk).
  • Strategic angels: the two PT group owners can supply pilot clinics and references, the scarcest input in Relay's v0. Test the claim before closing by asking each for three clinic-owner introductions within two weeks. Ask about follow-on capacity and how many past companies raised a next round and from whom. Put everyone on the same SAFE form and cap the list near six names.
  • Recommendation: $750k from the pre-seed fund as lead, plus $750k from five or six strategic angels at $100k–$150k each. Decline the multistage check, or take it only with a clear, early decision on the seed. If the lead fund cannot show reserves for the seed, or the angel introductions do not arrive, change the mix. Fund-fit figures are illustrative; actual terms need counsel's review.
Relay · illustrative venture32 / 34
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29 / DebriefVenture capital, angels & investor economics

Reasoning traps

Pitching a fund whose arithmetic cannot use you

Before the first meeting, work out what your company would return to that fund at a realistic exit. Relay at $600M can matter a great deal to a $40M fund and not at all to a $1B fund, whatever the partners say.

Reading a gross multiple as the LP's return

Fees, carry and an eight-year holding period separate a 3.1x gross target from a 2.5x net, about 12% a year. Quoting gross multiples as investor returns overstates how attractive venture is and misreads why VCs need so much upside.

Counting promised help as capital

Introductions, mentoring and 'we'll lead your next round' are claims to verify, not terms. Test them before closing, and treat a large fund's small check as an option that can turn into a negative signal.

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29 / ReviewVenture capital, angels & investor economics

What you can now explain

An investor-fit brief for Relay's $1.5M pre-seed: a recommended syndicate, a fund-math sketch for each investor type at a $600M exit, diligence questions, and the conditions that would change the choice.

  • Fund size, fees, carry and the power law of outcomes decide what a VC can invest in, before any judgment of the company's quality.
  • Required ownership at exit equals required proceeds divided by exit value, so fund size and exit size together set the stake an investor needs.
  • Choosing investors means checking capacity, follow-on reserves, governance behavior and verified help, not only the size of the check.

Next lesson: Ownership, share prices & option pools

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